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The chase calculator Enter a match situation. The answer is how often IPL teams actually won from there.
How often the chasing side won from each situation, with 6 wickets in hand. Darker means it usually won; grey means too few matches to say. The outlined square is the situation above.
1 over left, need 10: chasing side won 144 of 154 (94%) 1 over left, need 20: chasing side won 61 of 88 (69%) 1 over left, need 30: chasing side won 21 of 47 (45%) 1 over left, need 40: chasing side won 15 of 37 (41%) 1 over left, need 50: too few matches 1 over left, need 60: too few matches 1 over left, need 70: too few matches 1 over left, need 80: too few matches 1 over left, need 90: too few matches 1 over left, need 100: too few matches 1 over left, need 110: too few matches 1 over left, need 120: too few matches 1 over left, need 130: too few matches 1 over left, need 140: too few matches 1 over left, need 150: too few matches 1 over left, need 160: too few matches 1 over left, need 170: too few matches 1 over left, need 180: too few matches 1 over left, need 190: too few matches 1 over left, need 200: too few matches 2 overs left, need 10: chasing side won 125 of 125 (100%) 2 overs left, need 20: chasing side won 163 of 187 (87%) 2 overs left, need 30: chasing side won 105 of 151 (70%) 2 overs left, need 40: chasing side won 43 of 109 (39%) 2 overs left, need 50: chasing side won 13 of 60 (22%) 2 overs left, need 60: chasing side won 0 of 15 (0%) 2 overs left, need 70: too few matches 2 overs left, need 80: too few matches 2 overs left, need 90: too few matches 2 overs left, need 100: too few matches 2 overs left, need 110: too few matches 2 overs left, need 120: too few matches 2 overs left, need 130: too few matches 2 overs left, need 140: too few matches 2 overs left, need 150: too few matches 2 overs left, need 160: too few matches 2 overs left, need 170: too few matches 2 overs left, need 180: too few matches 2 overs left, need 190: too few matches 2 overs left, need 200: too few matches 3 overs left, need 10: chasing side won 30 of 30 (100%) 3 overs left, need 20: chasing side won 83 of 85 (98%) 3 overs left, need 30: chasing side won 98 of 110 (89%) 3 overs left, need 40: chasing side won 72 of 135 (53%) 3 overs left, need 50: chasing side won 26 of 100 (26%) 3 overs left, need 60: chasing side won 12 of 36 (33%) 3 overs left, need 70: chasing side won 0 of 20 (0%) 3 overs left, need 80: too few matches 3 overs left, need 90: too few matches 3 overs left, need 100: too few matches 3 overs left, need 110: too few matches 3 overs left, need 120: too few matches 3 overs left, need 130: too few matches 3 overs left, need 140: too few matches 3 overs left, need 150: too few matches 3 overs left, need 160: too few matches 3 overs left, need 170: too few matches 3 overs left, need 180: too few matches 3 overs left, need 190: too few matches 3 overs left, need 200: too few matches 4 overs left, need 10: chasing side won 22 of 24 (92%) 4 overs left, need 20: chasing side won 77 of 81 (95%) 4 overs left, need 30: chasing side won 107 of 109 (98%) 4 overs left, need 40: chasing side won 93 of 159 (58%) 4 overs left, need 50: chasing side won 79 of 161 (49%) 4 overs left, need 60: chasing side won 33 of 124 (27%) 4 overs left, need 70: chasing side won 8 of 84 (10%) 4 overs left, need 80: chasing side won 1 of 43 (2%) 4 overs left, need 90: chasing side won 0 of 17 (0%) 4 overs left, need 100: too few matches 4 overs left, need 110: too few matches 4 overs left, need 120: too few matches 4 overs left, need 130: too few matches 4 overs left, need 140: too few matches 4 overs left, need 150: too few matches 4 overs left, need 160: too few matches 4 overs left, need 170: too few matches 4 overs left, need 180: too few matches 4 overs left, need 190: too few matches 4 overs left, need 200: too few matches 5 overs left, need 10: too few matches 5 overs left, need 20: chasing side won 15 of 17 (88%) 5 overs left, need 30: chasing side won 49 of 53 (92%) 5 overs left, need 40: chasing side won 49 of 57 (86%) 5 overs left, need 50: chasing side won 83 of 134 (62%) 5 overs left, need 60: chasing side won 36 of 105 (34%) 5 overs left, need 70: chasing side won 33 of 103 (32%) 5 overs left, need 80: chasing side won 14 of 73 (19%) 5 overs left, need 90: chasing side won 1 of 37 (3%) 5 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 0 of 31 (0%) 5 overs left, need 110: too few matches 5 overs left, need 120: too few matches 5 overs left, need 130: too few matches 5 overs left, need 140: too few matches 5 overs left, need 150: too few matches 5 overs left, need 160: too few matches 5 overs left, need 170: too few matches 5 overs left, need 180: too few matches 5 overs left, need 190: too few matches 5 overs left, need 200: too few matches 6 overs left, need 10: too few matches 6 overs left, need 20: too few matches 6 overs left, need 30: chasing side won 28 of 28 (100%) 6 overs left, need 40: chasing side won 63 of 70 (90%) 6 overs left, need 50: chasing side won 32 of 59 (54%) 6 overs left, need 60: chasing side won 72 of 121 (60%) 6 overs left, need 70: chasing side won 45 of 143 (31%) 6 overs left, need 80: chasing side won 36 of 127 (28%) 6 overs left, need 90: chasing side won 14 of 108 (13%) 6 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 2 of 78 (3%) 6 overs left, need 110: chasing side won 0 of 23 (0%) 6 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 0 of 20 (0%) 6 overs left, need 130: too few matches 6 overs left, need 140: too few matches 6 overs left, need 150: too few matches 6 overs left, need 160: too few matches 6 overs left, need 170: too few matches 6 overs left, need 180: too few matches 6 overs left, need 190: too few matches 6 overs left, need 200: too few matches 7 overs left, need 10: too few matches 7 overs left, need 20: chasing side won 16 of 16 (100%) 7 overs left, need 30: chasing side won 15 of 15 (100%) 7 overs left, need 40: too few matches 7 overs left, need 50: chasing side won 29 of 35 (83%) 7 overs left, need 60: chasing side won 44 of 72 (61%) 7 overs left, need 70: chasing side won 33 of 88 (38%) 7 overs left, need 80: chasing side won 22 of 88 (25%) 7 overs left, need 90: chasing side won 26 of 75 (35%) 7 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 9 of 110 (8%) 7 overs left, need 110: chasing side won 0 of 60 (0%) 7 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 0 of 15 (0%) 7 overs left, need 130: too few matches 7 overs left, need 140: too few matches 7 overs left, need 150: too few matches 7 overs left, need 160: too few matches 7 overs left, need 170: too few matches 7 overs left, need 180: too few matches 7 overs left, need 190: too few matches 7 overs left, need 200: too few matches 8 overs left, need 10: too few matches 8 overs left, need 20: too few matches 8 overs left, need 30: too few matches 8 overs left, need 40: too few matches 8 overs left, need 50: chasing side won 14 of 15 (93%) 8 overs left, need 60: chasing side won 30 of 37 (81%) 8 overs left, need 70: chasing side won 31 of 71 (44%) 8 overs left, need 80: chasing side won 52 of 97 (54%) 8 overs left, need 90: chasing side won 35 of 118 (30%) 8 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 29 of 100 (29%) 8 overs left, need 110: chasing side won 9 of 95 (9%) 8 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 0 of 37 (0%) 8 overs left, need 130: chasing side won 0 of 17 (0%) 8 overs left, need 140: chasing side won 0 of 21 (0%) 8 overs left, need 150: too few matches 8 overs left, need 160: too few matches 8 overs left, need 170: too few matches 8 overs left, need 180: too few matches 8 overs left, need 190: too few matches 8 overs left, need 200: too few matches 9 overs left, need 10: too few matches 9 overs left, need 20: too few matches 9 overs left, need 30: too few matches 9 overs left, need 40: too few matches 9 overs left, need 50: too few matches 9 overs left, need 60: chasing side won 22 of 23 (96%) 9 overs left, need 70: chasing side won 9 of 20 (45%) 9 overs left, need 80: chasing side won 15 of 41 (37%) 9 overs left, need 90: chasing side won 19 of 56 (34%) 9 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 21 of 80 (26%) 9 overs left, need 110: chasing side won 5 of 59 (8%) 9 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 7 of 47 (15%) 9 overs left, need 130: chasing side won 0 of 45 (0%) 9 overs left, need 140: chasing side won 0 of 26 (0%) 9 overs left, need 150: chasing side won 0 of 15 (0%) 9 overs left, need 160: too few matches 9 overs left, need 170: too few matches 9 overs left, need 180: too few matches 9 overs left, need 190: too few matches 9 overs left, need 200: too few matches 10 overs left, need 10: too few matches 10 overs left, need 20: too few matches 10 overs left, need 30: too few matches 10 overs left, need 40: too few matches 10 overs left, need 50: too few matches 10 overs left, need 60: too few matches 10 overs left, need 70: chasing side won 21 of 21 (100%) 10 overs left, need 80: chasing side won 18 of 38 (47%) 10 overs left, need 90: chasing side won 27 of 45 (60%) 10 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 17 of 90 (19%) 10 overs left, need 110: chasing side won 9 of 51 (18%) 10 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 5 of 64 (8%) 10 overs left, need 130: chasing side won 5 of 55 (9%) 10 overs left, need 140: chasing side won 0 of 42 (0%) 10 overs left, need 150: chasing side won 0 of 31 (0%) 10 overs left, need 160: too few matches 10 overs left, need 170: chasing side won 0 of 18 (0%) 10 overs left, need 180: too few matches 10 overs left, need 190: too few matches 10 overs left, need 200: too few matches 11 overs left, need 10: too few matches 11 overs left, need 20: too few matches 11 overs left, need 30: too few matches 11 overs left, need 40: too few matches 11 overs left, need 50: too few matches 11 overs left, need 60: too few matches 11 overs left, need 70: too few matches 11 overs left, need 80: too few matches 11 overs left, need 90: chasing side won 6 of 30 (20%) 11 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 5 of 20 (25%) 11 overs left, need 110: chasing side won 11 of 56 (20%) 11 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 3 of 35 (9%) 11 overs left, need 130: chasing side won 4 of 24 (17%) 11 overs left, need 140: chasing side won 0 of 40 (0%) 11 overs left, need 150: chasing side won 0 of 27 (0%) 11 overs left, need 160: too few matches 11 overs left, need 170: chasing side won 0 of 19 (0%) 11 overs left, need 180: too few matches 11 overs left, need 190: too few matches 11 overs left, need 200: too few matches 12 overs left, need 10: too few matches 12 overs left, need 20: too few matches 12 overs left, need 30: too few matches 12 overs left, need 40: too few matches 12 overs left, need 50: too few matches 12 overs left, need 60: too few matches 12 overs left, need 70: too few matches 12 overs left, need 80: too few matches 12 overs left, need 90: too few matches 12 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 9 of 30 (30%) 12 overs left, need 110: chasing side won 18 of 47 (38%) 12 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 8 of 38 (21%) 12 overs left, need 130: chasing side won 1 of 30 (3%) 12 overs left, need 140: chasing side won 0 of 28 (0%) 12 overs left, need 150: chasing side won 0 of 26 (0%) 12 overs left, need 160: chasing side won 0 of 42 (0%) 12 overs left, need 170: too few matches 12 overs left, need 180: too few matches 12 overs left, need 190: too few matches 12 overs left, need 200: too few matches 13 overs left, need 10: too few matches 13 overs left, need 20: too few matches 13 overs left, need 30: too few matches 13 overs left, need 40: too few matches 13 overs left, need 50: too few matches 13 overs left, need 60: too few matches 13 overs left, need 70: too few matches 13 overs left, need 80: too few matches 13 overs left, need 90: too few matches 13 overs left, need 100: chasing side won 5 of 22 (23%) 13 overs left, need 110: too few matches 13 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 0 of 15 (0%) 13 overs left, need 130: chasing side won 5 of 16 (31%) 13 overs left, need 140: chasing side won 0 of 25 (0%) 13 overs left, need 150: chasing side won 0 of 16 (0%) 13 overs left, need 160: chasing side won 0 of 15 (0%) 13 overs left, need 170: chasing side won 0 of 18 (0%) 13 overs left, need 180: too few matches 13 overs left, need 190: too few matches 13 overs left, need 200: too few matches 14 overs left, need 10: too few matches 14 overs left, need 20: too few matches 14 overs left, need 30: too few matches 14 overs left, need 40: too few matches 14 overs left, need 50: too few matches 14 overs left, need 60: too few matches 14 overs left, need 70: too few matches 14 overs left, need 80: too few matches 14 overs left, need 90: too few matches 14 overs left, need 100: too few matches 14 overs left, need 110: chasing side won 6 of 21 (29%) 14 overs left, need 120: chasing side won 6 of 15 (40%) 14 overs left, need 130: too few matches 14 overs left, need 140: chasing side won 0 of 25 (0%) 14 overs left, need 150: chasing side won 2 of 33 (6%) 14 overs left, need 160: chasing side won 2 of 33 (6%) 14 overs left, need 170: chasing side won 0 of 16 (0%) 14 overs left, need 180: too few matches 14 overs left, need 190: too few matches 14 overs left, need 200: too few matches 15 overs left, need 10: too few matches 15 overs left, need 20: too few matches 15 overs left, need 30: too few matches 15 overs left, need 40: too few matches 15 overs left, need 50: too few matches 15 overs left, need 60: too few matches 15 overs left, need 70: too few matches 15 overs left, need 80: too few matches 15 overs left, need 90: too few matches 15 overs left, need 100: too few matches 15 overs left, need 110: too few matches 15 overs left, need 120: too few matches 15 overs left, need 130: too few matches 15 overs left, need 140: too few matches 15 overs left, need 150: too few matches 15 overs left, need 160: chasing side won 0 of 16 (0%) 15 overs left, need 170: too few matches 15 overs left, need 180: too few matches 15 overs left, need 190: too few matches 15 overs left, need 200: too few matches 16 overs left, need 10: too few matches 16 overs left, need 20: too few matches 16 overs left, need 30: too few matches 16 overs left, need 40: too few matches 16 overs left, need 50: too few matches 16 overs left, need 60: too few matches 16 overs left, need 70: too few matches 16 overs left, need 80: too few matches 16 overs left, need 90: too few matches 16 overs left, need 100: too few matches 16 overs left, need 110: too few matches 16 overs left, need 120: too few matches 16 overs left, need 130: too few matches 16 overs left, need 140: too few matches 16 overs left, need 150: too few matches 16 overs left, need 160: chasing side won 0 of 15 (0%) 16 overs left, need 170: too few matches 16 overs left, need 180: too few matches 16 overs left, need 190: too few matches 16 overs left, need 200: too few matches 17 overs left, need 10: too few matches 17 overs left, need 20: too few matches 17 overs left, need 30: too few matches 17 overs left, need 40: too few matches 17 overs left, need 50: too few matches 17 overs left, need 60: too few matches 17 overs left, need 70: too few matches 17 overs left, need 80: too few matches 17 overs left, need 90: too few matches 17 overs left, need 100: too few matches 17 overs left, need 110: too few matches 17 overs left, need 120: too few matches 17 overs left, need 130: too few matches 17 overs left, need 140: too few matches 17 overs left, need 150: too few matches 17 overs left, need 160: too few matches 17 overs left, need 170: too few matches 17 overs left, need 180: too few matches 17 overs left, need 190: too few matches 17 overs left, need 200: too few matches 18 overs left, need 10: too few matches 18 overs left, need 20: too few matches 18 overs left, need 30: too few matches 18 overs left, need 40: too few matches 18 overs left, need 50: too few matches 18 overs left, need 60: too few matches 18 overs left, need 70: too few matches 18 overs left, need 80: too few matches 18 overs left, need 90: too few matches 18 overs left, need 100: too few matches 18 overs left, need 110: too few matches 18 overs left, need 120: too few matches 18 overs left, need 130: too few matches 18 overs left, need 140: too few matches 18 overs left, need 150: too few matches 18 overs left, need 160: too few matches 18 overs left, need 170: too few matches 18 overs left, need 180: too few matches 18 overs left, need 190: too few matches 18 overs left, need 200: too few matches 19 overs left, need 10: too few matches 19 overs left, need 20: too few matches 19 overs left, need 30: too few matches 19 overs left, need 40: too few matches 19 overs left, need 50: too few matches 19 overs left, need 60: too few matches 19 overs left, need 70: too few matches 19 overs left, need 80: too few matches 19 overs left, need 90: too few matches 19 overs left, need 100: too few matches 19 overs left, need 110: too few matches 19 overs left, need 120: too few matches 19 overs left, need 130: too few matches 19 overs left, need 140: too few matches 19 overs left, need 150: too few matches 19 overs left, need 160: too few matches 19 overs left, need 170: too few matches 19 overs left, need 180: too few matches 19 overs left, need 190: too few matches 19 overs left, need 200: too few matches 20 overs left, need 10: too few matches 20 overs left, need 20: too few matches 20 overs left, need 30: too few matches 20 overs left, need 40: too few matches 20 overs left, need 50: too few matches 20 overs left, need 60: too few matches 20 overs left, need 70: too few matches 20 overs left, need 80: too few matches 20 overs left, need 90: too few matches 20 overs left, need 100: too few matches 20 overs left, need 110: too few matches 20 overs left, need 120: too few matches 20 overs left, need 130: too few matches 20 overs left, need 140: too few matches 20 overs left, need 150: too few matches 20 overs left, need 160: too few matches 20 overs left, need 170: too few matches 20 overs left, need 180: too few matches 20 overs left, need 190: too few matches 20 overs left, need 200: too few matches Your situation 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Overs left Runs needed
Built by replaying every usable IPL run chase ball by ball and recording, for each game state (balls left, runs needed, wickets in hand), how often the chasing side won. Only states seen at least 15 times are kept. Data: Cricsheet ball-by-ball records. Code: cricket_winprob_model.py ; table: cricket_winprob_table.json .